Release Date: Release Date – 12:50 AM, Wednesday – November 2
Due to the scarcity created by the war, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine will only delay global efforts to reduce carbon emissions because coal is being used instead of natural gas.
By: Dr. Oruganty Prasada Rao
COP27 or the Conference of the Parties, to be held in Egypt from 6 to 18 November, will discuss a number of topics: just transitions, food security, climate finance, clean energy, water security and climate vulnerability, but the main focus will be on On “Green Hydrogen”. However, mitigation alone cannot address climate change impacts and adaptation is inevitable. COP27 also needs to discuss this aspect.
Since the first meeting “COP1” in Germany in 1995, the COP has been hosted by a different country every year. The last meeting, COP26, will be held in Glasgow in 2021. “Parties” are countries where governments around the world have signed the UN Framework Convention climate changea 1994 treaty to mitigate the effects of climate change.
grow with fossil fuels
Global fossil fuel consumption in 1850 was negligible, with 569 terawatt-hours (TWh) all coming from coal, compared to 1,36,018 TWh in 2021, with coal, oil and natural gas almost equally divided. This leads to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Global warming is proportional to carbon dioxide concentration, which has increased from 285 ppm in 1850 to 416 ppm (parts per million) in September 2022. The increased greenhouse effect caused by the increase in carbon dioxide concentration increases the global temperature. Global warming causes climate change.
coping with change
The effects of climate change can basically be addressed in two ways – mitigation or adaptation, or both. Mitigation measures are centered on reducing carbon dioxide emissions, as the rise in global temperature depends on its concentration in the atmosphere. Adaptation needs to be adjusted based on the desired effect. A few examples are:
high temperature
The 2015 Paris Agreement requires countries to keep global temperature rise this century below 2°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) and to work to limit it to 1.5°C. Earth’s global surface temperature is now about 1.1°C higher than the 1850-1900 average.
The basic principle for limiting global temperature rise is to generate as little carbon dioxide as possible from energy use. Compared to other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide is produced in large quantities and stays in the atmosphere for longer periods of time (100-1,000 years), while other gases break down quickly. Therefore, carbon dioxide is the main concern. Even if a zero carbon emissions scenario is achieved today, the presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will continue to contribute to global warming for a long time to come.
The pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have only delayed global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, and because of the scarcity created by the war, coal is being used instead of natural gas, thus increasing carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. Therefore, in addition to mitigation measures, adaptation to elevated temperatures is also required. Adaptations include changing hours of outdoor work, such as construction and agricultural activities, in response to high ambient temperatures.
Sea-level rise
Average sea level will rise to 101.1mm in 2021 compared to 1993 due to melting of Arctic ice and glaciers and thermal expansion. Sea levels are likely to rise by at least 1 foot (0.3 m) above 2000 levels by the beginning of the next century, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, while the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates they will rise 16 to 25 inches (40-63 cm). By 2100, as many as 250 million people across all continents could be “directly affected”.
According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, the Maldives, the flattest country on earth, will lose about 77 percent of its land area by 2100. To show the world the vulnerability of the sea-level state, then-Maldives President Mohammad Nasheed convened a cabinet meeting on global underwater carbon emissions in October 2009. Adaptations include seawalls and floating houses – the Netherlands is studying them, while Bangladesh is experimenting with floating agricultural farms. Permanent migration of people from low to high altitudes is also necessary.
Rain, floods and droughts
Pakistan is a recent example of flooding due to excessive rainfall. One-third of the country was submerged, affecting 33 million people and costing an estimated $40 billion. This situation requires millions of people to be moved to safer places, massive dewatering of standing water and rebuilding of infrastructure. Many rivers and lakes are drying up due to heat and drought, such as the Colorado, Rio Grande, Indus and Yellow Rivers. The storage of rainwater can cope with floods and droughts.
Heatwaves and forest fires
The U.S. and Japan had their worst heatwaves in 150 years, outside of Canada, the U.K. and Europe. Temperatures in Portugal rose from 400 degrees Celsius to 470 degrees Celsius. Fires in parts of France, Spain and Portugal will burn more land in 2022 than in all of 2021, or 5,17,881 hectares, the equivalent of Trinidad and Tobago. New methods of moving people to safer places and fighting fires, such as sprinkler systems, need to be adapted. Homes near forested areas need fire protection.
agriculture
Exceptionally, hot summers and very cold winters or warm winters and cold simmers, floods, excess moisture and drought can reduce crop productivity and increase pest infestation. Adaptation measures that need to be taken are: development of climate-resilient crops that can withstand water scarcity or water scarcity and high temperatures, suitable pesticides, storage of rainwater, enhanced observation and early warning systems.
healthy
Climate change affects social and environmental determinants of health. Greater access to safe drinking water and sanitation, enhanced public health infrastructure, affordable health insurance, sustainable urban development and early warning systems for impending climate change are some of the adaptation measures.
migrant
People living in coastal areas need to move to safer places. Likewise, people are also affected by drought, forest fires and dry rivers. Animals and plants may also have to be moved.
Both mitigation and adaptation require trillions of dollars. COP27 needs to convince developed countries to meet their funding commitments. They are not doing any good because they are the culprits of climate change. Polluters must pay the price.
The climate change we see now is man-made by the burning of fossil fuels after 1850. Increased concentrations of carbon dioxide gas disturb the balance of the atmosphere, threatening the very existence of life on Earth. Temperatures are now 1.10°C higher and the world is experiencing severe heatwaves, forest fires, flooding, heat-related deaths, droughts and more. If the expected 2.4-2.60°C is reached, the severity of the effects can be imagined.
(The author is a retired scientist, CSIR)
