IIT researchers from Hyderabad and Kanpur say peak of ongoing surge in Covid infections will end in coming days
Published Date – Monday, 4/24/23 at 08:00 AM
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Hyderabad: IIT researchers from Hyderabad and Kanpur said on Sunday that the current surge in Covid infections due to the XBB 1.16 variant in several Indian cities is just a ripple as the natural immunity Indians acquired in the past three waves continues to hold strong .
According to researchers such as IIT-Kanpur Prof. Manindra Agrawal and SERB National Science Chair Dr. M Vidyasagar of IIT-Hyderabad, the peak of the ongoing surge in Covid infections will end in the coming days, they said that Covid is not a concern now in India. Researchers earlier developed the SUTRA mathematical model for predicting epidemics.
Commenting on the continued rise in infections due to the XBB 1.16 variant, they concluded that India’s natural immunity continues to be strong. “According to our model, only 9-12% of people lose their natural immunity. That’s why despite having highly contagious variants and no restrictions, we only have a ripple effect,” Agrawal said.
Top researchers at IIT, whose earlier mathematical models accurately predicted the paths of these three waves, pointed out that some people are also losing their natural immunity, which is why the rate of Covid infection is rising. Similar smaller ripples may also appear in the near future. However, they say, there is nothing to worry about.
Based on the SUTRA model, the IIT researchers expect the current upward trend in infections to peak at 16,000 positive cases per day across the country in the next few days. However, there are indications that the daily processing volume will not reach the above figures, and the peak will be much lower than expected. Therefore, the number of infections will start to drop in the coming days.
In addition to the SUTRA researchers, expert epidemiologists and public health researchers involved in tracking the XBB 1.16 variant also believe that the current all-India data suggest that the Covid surge in India is over and there are clear signs that it is now slowing down.
