Post Date: Post Date – 12:24 AM, Tuesday – Nov 8
Protests over the hijab issue have intensified in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of Iran’s “morality police”, just one manifestation of civil society discontent. Amini’s death, which led to the current unrest in Iran, can be seen as a perfect example of the butterfly effect – the possibility of a typhoon caused by the flapping of a butterfly’s wings. There may be many other reasons behind such typhoons. Sadly, Iran exemplifies this theory. Soaring unemployment, spiraling inflation, currency devaluation, a rapidly shifting geopolitical adjustment following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and draconian sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union have undoubtedly contributed to the current crisis. The spread of protests to other areas such as impoverished Sistan-Baluchistan on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border does not bode well and could lead to no way back for Iran. While the protests in Iran appear to be innocuous for young women to discard their headscarves or cut their hair in public or knock off clerics’ turbans and run away, the simmering discontent could grow further as Iran tries to address the issue with an iron fist Intensifying. So far, more than 300 people have been killed and more than 20,000 arrested as a result of Iran’s crackdown on protests.
Iran’s leadership is responsible for the current crisis. Unemployment reached 24% this quarter (young people aged 15 to 24). No wonder, college campuses have become a source of unrest. Inflation hit a staggering 40%, while the Iranian rial plummeted. The value of the currency has reached an incredible exchange rate, in the open market, one dollar is worth 3,62,000 rials, while the country maintains an official “artificial rate” of 42,000 rials per dollar. The course of the rial’s plunge became more apparent after the protests erupted. The U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 and sanctions on Iran also contributed to the decline. As if these were not enough, the geopolitical imbalance that followed the Ukrainian-Russian conflict pushed Iran toward Russia and China. Adding to the danger is Iran’s recent statement that it has provided Russia with drones for use in the ongoing conflict. A dangerous result of Iranian support is that it further alienates other countries. Israel has reportedly softened its stance on Ukraine as it believes Iran’s growing proximity to Russia could turn into a threat to Israeli security. With this structural shift taking place, it is time for the Iranian leadership to step down a little and ensure peace in the country. Otherwise, the country that saw a white revolution in 1979 would surely see another revolution. Don’t mistake the riot for the flapping of a butterfly’s wings. It can indeed create a typhoon!
