Decreased immunity in people who acquired natural immunity through Covid infection in India may cause small ripples of Covid infection in the coming months.
Posted Date – 11:59 PM, Sunday – 12/25/22
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Hyderabad: In India, reduced immunity in people who acquired natural immunity through Covid infection may cause small ripples of Covid infection in the coming months.
However, researchers from IIT Hyderabad and IIT Kanpur said in their SUTRA model for forecasting the course of the pandemic that the surge in Covid infections is unlikely to be as significant as the ongoing Covid wave in China.
Dr M Vidyasagar and Dr Manindra, senior researchers at IIT Hyderabad, said the natural immunity acquired by most Indians during the first three waves of Covid would provide sufficient protection against new Omicron variants, especially BF 7, which is responsible for the surge in infections in China The reason Agrawal said.
“According to our models, more than 98% of Indians have natural immunity. So we don’t see any reason to be concerned. Over time, a certain percentage of the population loses natural immunity, which could cause small volatility, but a significant increase is unlikely,” said the SUTRA coalition member.
The current rise in Covid infections in China, Brazil, South Korea, Japan and the United States is due to new mutations and a percentage of the population that has lost natural immunity, as was the case in India a few months ago.
25% of the population in South Korea does not have natural immunity, 40% in Japan, and 20% in the United States. As a result, the ongoing Covid wave is expected to continue in these countries for some time, as a large portion of the population still has no natural immunity.
The IIT researchers pointed out that in the past, countries with high natural immunity have not seen a significant increase in the number of cases. “In China, due to its zero-Covid policy, natural immunity did not develop,” said Dr Manindra Agrawal.
Numerous studies have been conducted by multiple research institutions proving that natural immunity is superior to vaccine-induced immunity. During the Delta- and Omicron-driven Covid wave, a large portion of the Indian population was exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and developed natural immunity.
In fact, more than half of the population of Hyderabad has acquired natural immunity through SARS-CoV-2 infection by March 2021, according to a Hyderabad-centred study by CCMB and NIN. The serological surveillance study conducted by NIN in collaboration with ICMR and the state government said that the level of immunity against SARS-CoV-2 is about 60% to 62% across the Telangana region.
