India may be wary of backing Canada in the Indo-Pacific given Canadian PM’s dovishness on Kalistan
Release Date – Friday 23rd (July 21st) at 11:45pm
Author: Amitava Mukherjee
What do you think of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on India’s foreign policy issues? He’s not like Vladimir Putin or Joe Biden. Putin’s character is completely opaque. It’s hard to predict where his board will go. Biden is a more transparent figure. But he lacks an ideological basis. You can’t juxtapose his presence with that of John F. Kennedy or even Richard Nixon. Currently, there are few leaders in Europe that liberal democracies can look up to.
But New Delhi has reason to worry about the somewhat irresponsible image Trudeau is trying to project for himself. As you all know, pro-Callistan elements have long been granted asylum in Canada. As the country’s prime minister, Trudeau has no right to invoke the oft-repeated “free speech” cliché to lend credibility to these elements. This is especially confusing as Canada is now trying to become a player in the Indo-Pacific geostrategic and geoeconomic arena and sees India as an important factor in this arena.
geostrategic ambitions
Let us consider Canada’s changing geostrategic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region. Justin’s father, Pierre Trudeau, a longtime former prime minister of Canada, is content with keeping a low profile for himself and the country. In the 1960s and 1970s, few of us were used to hearing that Canada was in the middle of world politics. Even now, the situation is not much different except that Canadian educational institutions have now become hostels for mediocre Indian students. It is therefore somewhat puzzling that Canada would be interested in following the U.S. bandwagon in the Indo-Pacific despite China being Canada’s second largest trading partner.
That’s an underlying tension in Canada’s foreign policy initiatives, and Trudeau has been poor at trying to deal with it. Last November, he released the Indo-Pacific strategy document, identifying this particular region as the center of global economic dynamism and strategic challenges. The facts are undeniable. The region has an economic machine like China. It has India, the most populous country in the world. It has Vietnam, which has a fast-growing economy. It has the thriving economies of the Asian Tigers – Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. Finally, there are ASEAN countries, not to mention some other large economies such as Japan and Australia.
security threat
It can be seen that Canada has been valued by major powers in Indo-Pacific affairs. But Canada’s stakes are high, as 1 in 5 Canadians have family ties in the region, and 60% of Canada’s international students live in the region. Ottawa therefore declared India its “vital partner” in the Indo-Pacific region. But does India really see Canada as a responsible partner while opposing China in the region? Maybe not. If Indo-Canadian bilateral relations come to a bitter end, will it pose a security threat to New Delhi?
Yes, this is a bad omen, although it is unclear how much of a security threat the pro-Khalistan elements currently active in Canada, US, UK and Australia pose to India. However, unimpeded pro-Khalistan demonstrations in these countries will certainly fuel the forces of separatism in India. Trudeau’s immaturity has already contributed to the deterioration of bilateral relations between Ottawa and New Delhi. The event that caused the sensation was the decision of the Punjab government to suppress the activities of Khalistan propagandist Amritpal Singh. This has led to pro-Khalistan demonstrations and acts of vandalism by disaffected elements in front of Indian diplomatic missions in the said countries. The most serious incident occurred in Canada, where Indian diplomats were threatened with physical violence. A float was also brought out in the parade depicting the assassination of Indira Gandhi.
Unsurprisingly, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted strongly to this. The Canadian government said it was committed to ensuring the safety of Indian diplomats and opposing violence and extremism. But behind this appearance lies a grim reality. Over 3.5% of Canada’s population comes from the Indian state of Punjab. Trudeau has won them over by taking a liberal approach to immigration. His Liberal Party, which has just 157 seats, leads a minority government and relies on the support of the New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, who is said to be a supporter of Khalistan. He has three Sikh ministers in his cabinet. This is not to say that all Sikhs in Canada are Kalistan sympathizers. In fact, leaders of the Sikh community are now organizing anti-Khalistan protest marches in Canada.
Omissions and Commissions
Parliamentary support is one thing, turning a blind eye to allegations of violence and extremism is another. True, Sikhs are now a determining factor in many urban constituencies. They can help Trudeau win the election. But softening the growing Khalistan threat by some of them could end up creating a serious security threat for India. Trudeau first got excited about it when he unnecessarily tried to interfere with the uproar among Indian farmers against a series of proposed reforms of the central government’s agricultural sector.
Listing Trudeau’s omissions and mandates in this regard is of little help. Arguably, during a visit to India in 2018, the Canadian prime minister and his wife were seen with convicted Khalistan terrorist Jaspal Singh Atwal. In 2017, Trudeau participated in the Khalsa Day celebrations in Toronto, where the Khalistan flag was publicly flown and a banner with a photo of Janel Singh Bindranwale was displayed. These were reflected when Trudeau was publicly snubbed by the Indian government during his visit to India in 2018.
This time New Delhi has also taken a tough stance. Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar’s various remarks point to this point. Now we have to see how two particular powers – the US and the UK – will react. It’s fairly safe to say that the United States will not stand by Canada on this issue. But the situation in the UK is less predictable. The important question is whether India will lend a helping hand to Canada on Indo-Pacific issues.
