Upcoming Karnataka elections in May will be semi-final for BJP and Congress
Published Date – Sat 4/15/23 12:30am
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By: Sana Zulfikar Ahmed, Dr. Karamala Areesh Kumar
Hyderabad: The upcoming Karnataka state elections on May 10, 2023 will be a semi-final between the BJP and Congress before national elections. A string of visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, hijab issue, religious polarization, Bharat Jodo Yatra, retention politics and rising prices have drawn the country’s attention to state elections.
All three major parties – BJP, Congress and JD(S) – have participated in yatras and meetings, presenting their agendas and ideologies to win voters’ confidence. However, there are five important factors that affect the voting behavior and patterns of the people of Karnataka when they press the EVM button.
cult of personality
Narendra Modi and BS Yediyurappa in BJP, Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar in Congress, Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy in JD(S) are all prominent figures who can influence voters. Modi’s frequent visits to the state were a much-needed boost after the government faced anti-incumbent and corruption allegations. Despite Modi’s similar campaign in the 2018 elections, the BJP failed to win with an outright majority.
In this case, BS Yediyurappa will be the central face of the BJP with the support of his core Lingayat community. The ‘Vijay Sankalpa Yatra’ initiated by state leaders Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh and JP Nadda covered about 224 constituencies by targeting Hindu vote banks including Lingayats, Vokkaligas, SC and ST.
Siddaramaiah is the strongest opposition figure, supported by ethnic minorities, backward classes, Dalits, Muslims and Kurumba groups. He has also managed to reach ordinary people through Congress agenda and policies such as Gruha Jyoti (200 free electricity to all households), Gruha Lakshmi (Rs 2,000 per month assistance to female head of household) and Anna Bhagya (Every member of the BPL family gets 10kg of rice for free during Praja Dhwani Yatra and Bharat Jodo Yatra).
Similar schemes, including Ksheera Bhagya, Anna Bhagya, Housing, Indira Canteen, farmer loan waiver and irrigation projects, mobilized ordinary people to vote for Congress in the last election. Siddaramaiah aims to seize power by announcing similar social security policies during Praja Dhwani Yatra. He has also become a tough face in Congress by attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi and criticizing the BJP’s communalism, acche-din and demonetization policies.
JD(S)’s Deve Gowda is another popular figure who could change the dynamics of the state’s upcoming election. He remains the main leader of the Vokkaliga community. JD(S) captivated voters with a five-point policy agenda on irrigation and farmers issues; job creation for youth and women empowerment; health; housing and education during Pancharatna Yatra.
Arvind Kejriwal, the national convener of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), is also a likely candidate for the upcoming elections. After winning the Delhi and Punjab elections, Kejriwal is targeting Karnataka elections to march south. The AAP’s recent National status will also affect its performance in the upcoming election.
religious polarization
The state of Karnataka has witnessed religious tensions and communal divisions ahead of upcoming elections. Events including a cattle slaughter ban, an anti-conversion bill, a hijab ban, boycotts of Muslim businesses and the controversy surrounding Tipu Sultan Jayanti have divided the country’s electorate along the politics of religion.
Coastal Karnataka has become a stronghold for right-wing groups such as VHP, RSS and BJP. Communal conflict between Hindus and Muslims in Mangalore is also a big factor that could tip the scales.
caste and reservation
Historically, caste has been one of the important determinants of Karnataka elections. Every political party in the state is supported by some caste-based vote pool. Congress has the support of marginalized and backward castes, including Dalits, tribes and other British Columbians. Congress’s secular manifesto also attracted votes from Muslims, Christians and other minorities.
Likewise, the BJP has the support of the major castes in Karnataka. However, the recent politics of reservations, including the removal of 4% of reservations in the Muslim community, raising the reservations of Vokkaligas and Pachamasali, and the demand for internal reservations in the Banjara community may affect secular Hindu voting behaviour.
corruption
Karnataka has seen the lynching of Dalit Muslims, human rights activists and journalists during elections in the past, and this has not affected voting patterns.
But this election, the involvement of BJP leaders and representatives in corruption may lead to anti-regime. The opposition has successfully campaigned against corrupt activities by calling it a 40% government. BJP leaders have been blamed for asking contractors to take 40% commission. Social media memes and posts such as “QR Code-Pay CM” have gone viral amid allegations of corruption against the government.
Adani line
Hindenburg’s report on Adani Group stock manipulation shook the economy and the industrial sector. Controversy over Adani’s assets and its ties to the BJP government dominated parliament’s budget session, leading to its outright defeat. Opposition parties have accused the BJP government of having links to the Adani Group.
Opposition leaders including Rahul Gandhi and Mhua Moitra have questioned the relationship between Modi and Gautam Adani. The opposition parties accused the BJP and its allied governments in different countries of favoring Adani Group and handing over state resources to Adani Group.
Social media has played a very important role in associating Modi’s name with Adani. The prime minister’s silence on the Adani issue will also affect the behavior of ordinary voters.
