India will continue to be ideologically closer to the West but cannot rely too much on the national security of a few countries
Posted on – Thu, 08 Jun 23 at 12:45am
by Dhananjay Tripathi
In India recently, a number of G20 events held in various cities and institutions had a positive impact in generating public discussion on foreign policy issues. Likewise, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine received full coverage in the Indian media, and New Delhi’s neutral stance in the war was widely debated both domestically and internationally.
Some foreign policy analysts insist that India look beyond the historical context of its relationship with Russia and think on the side of the West. There is a fact that we are still living in a western dominated world order and it is also true that India has developed a close partnership with the developed western countries over the years.
Yet India faces foreign policy challenges ranging from cross-border terrorism to China’s provocative military buildup near its borders. India also has global ambitions. Still, for New Delhi, the immediate priority is to protect its borders from possible Chinese incursions and, in the long run, to develop credible deterrents. To achieve this goal, India needs uninterrupted economic growth and military modernization. In this regard, New Delhi will have to weigh its options carefully and realistically.
Let us discuss a few important variables in the contemporary world and judge India’s current foreign policy approach accordingly.
U.S.-China economic knot
It is no secret that in 1971, US National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger made a secret visit to China, laying the foundation for the relationship between the two countries. Political ideological differences aside, the United States has developed strong business ties with communist China over the years. Modern China as we know it would not have been economically successful without the volume manufacturing orders it received from American companies. Multinational corporations headquartered in the United States take advantage of cheap factors of production such as Chinese labor.
Notably, U.S.-China trade will hit a record $690 billion in 2022. The neoliberal lobby in the United States is not strongly opposed to China, despite some reservations, especially on intellectual property rights. President Joe Biden is clearly taking a different approach to China, less aggressive than his predecessors. Likewise, the U.S.-China trade data cannot be ignored. The million dollar question is when and how will the US disengage from the Chinese economy?
While the U.S.-China rivalry narrative is not without substance, it is certainly too unpredictable on stage. The existing compound web of interdependence in the world economy makes it difficult for major powers to save themselves economically from China, the world’s giant manufacturing center. Remember, even at the height of the border crisis, India-China trade was largely unaffected. This explains China’s pivotal position in the world economy, and it is logical that India is only partially dependent on the US in confronting China near its borders.
Europe’s dilemma
In Europe, countries such as France and Germany have responded more cautiously to China following the Russian invasion. These two reasons are interesting and contradictory. Some Europeans see China as a potential peacemaker who can appease Russia, a view that was further embraced after Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Moscow. In stark contrast to the first view, China should not be confronted by the West to the extent that it leads to some kind of Russian-Chinese bloc.
The war is taking place in Europe, and it shows no signs of ending anytime soon. Indeed, this is a major concern for regional powers. Therefore, Europe’s China policy is different from that of the United States, which surrounds Russia. In short, the passive attitude of European powers towards China may continue for some time. Here, let us not underestimate the economic ties between European countries and China.
india’s choice
All in all, the current international political and economic system is unstable and evolving. The US is no longer dominant, and neither is Europe. A rising and confident China has material resources and is unwilling to play by the established rules of the game. The Beijing Consensus, an alternative to the Washington Consensus, is now a concept familiar to international relations students.
In this case, who is absolutely with whom is the hardest question to answer. Therefore, a developing country like India must pursue an independent foreign policy, assessing its strengths and limitations. Democracy, a large middle class and a growing economy are India’s strengths, while it faces a double challenge on its border with China and Pakistan. Lastly, it is also important to mention that the West’s stance on Pakistan has changed over time, from giving Pakistan a free ride to accusing it of supporting and harboring terrorists.
There is no doubt that India has and will continue to maintain close ties with the West ideologically, but it cannot rely too much on a few countries on issues involving national security. New Delhi’s foreign policy may seem confusing to some, not black and white, but when read from an Indian perspective, it makes perfect sense.
