Release Date: Release Date – 12:37 AM, Monday – November 7th
The rebellion is even more pronounced in the ruling BJP, whose strategy of poaching parliamentary leaders failed because it could not accommodate them.
Rakesh Lohumi
Will politically conscious Himachal Pradesh voters maintain their decades-long tradition of voting to overthrow the incumbent regime, or will they have confidence in the ruling BJP in subsequent parliamentary polls? In a changing political environment, this “vexatious” question has puzzled subconscious scientists and political observers, and the answer will be provided by the 5.5 million voters who will vote on Nov. 12.
The BJP will go all out to vote to break the tradition of “change” that the country has been witnessing since 1985. The party entered the electoral arena under the slogan “Rivaj Badlega”, emphasizing that tradition will be broken. It was a difficult decision as no one party could retain power while the two mainstream parties, the Congress and the BJP, have been taking turns in power. Congress won in 1993, 2003 and 2012. The BJP won in 1990, 1998, 2007 and 2017.
Anti-incumbency factor
Throughout, the anti-incumbency factor has played a decisive role in the competition. In 1997, Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh conducted a provisional poll hoping to capitalize on the rift in the opposition BJP, which split vertically between the Shanta Kumar and PK Dhumal factions, but the Congress party still lost. Suhram’s newly formed Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC) won five seats and helped the BJP form a coalition government.
The legacy of change weighs heavily on the minds of BJP’s polling managers, and for good reason. Congress has swept away three parliamentary seats and the seat of Mandi Lok Sabha, which was held in by-elections a year ago. The complete elimination of the BJP was a rude shock to the leadership and cadres. The defeat in Mandi, the hometown of Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur, is a big embarrassment. This severely shook the party as it lost to a weak, divided and frustrated Congress. Congress is optimistic, BJP morale is low. However, parliamentary elections in five states earlier this year changed that. The rout of Congress in Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh shocked its cadres and the party lost its psychological advantage over the BJP.
The winning performance energized the BJP. The party created slogans such as “Naya Rivaj Banayenge, Phir Bhajapa Layenge” and “Jan Jan Ki Yehi Awaj, Badlega Rivaj”. The ruling BJP has been in electoral mode for the past year and Thakur has been announcing measures to woo voters.
Star activist Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken at a series of public meetings and launched several mega-projects with an eye toward subsequent polls. He laid the cornerstone for the bulk drug park, marked the first Amb Andaura-Delhi Vande Bharat Express train in the region, and opened the Indian Institute of Information Technology in Una. He also established AIIMS in Bilaspur and laid the cornerstone for Chamba’s 48 MW Chanju-III and 30 MW Deothal Chanju hydropower projects. He also launched Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana-III.
Whether these efforts will help the party retain power, or whether Congress will follow past trends to seize power, will be announced on Dec. 8.
AAP Opportunities
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) held its first election in the state and also fielded candidates in most constituencies, but it will be a battle between the BJP and Congress. Backed by a huge victory in neighbouring Punjab, AAP has been eyeing Himachal Pradesh, but its plans have been scuttled by a lack of an organisational network. It is now mostly concentrated in Gujarat, where there are better opportunities. In a close electoral battle, however, every vote counts, and the presence of an AAP candidate could derail key contenders for some seats. The state has been witnessing intense competition, with many seats decided by less than a thousand votes.
The division of anti-incumbent votes favors the ruling party as well as the opposition party. In the 2017 parliamentary polls, the absence of regional parties such as HVC and HLP (Haryana Lohit Party) helped the BJP as there was no division against the incumbent vote. Congress’ vote share dipped slightly — to 41.7 percent from 42.81 percent in 2012 — but its total number of seats plummeted from 36 to 21. The Bharatiya Janata Party pushed all votes against the incumbent vote to a dead end, boosting its vote share from 38.47% to 48.8% , taking 44 of 68 seats in total, up 18 from the 26 it won in 2012.
role of rebels
What has emerged after the distribution of tickets is clear, it will not be a piece of cake for the BJP. AAP may only matter in a few seats; it is the presence of large numbers of insurgents that keeps key adversaries awake at night.
The party’s strategy of poaching Congress leaders caused a stir because it couldn’t accommodate them. It has ousted six ruthless insurgents in six years and has more than a dozen seats in Kangra, Kuru, Mandi and Biraspur districts, where insurgents could sway the vote. It would be better off in Congress, where insurgents can only sap their voting power in a handful of seats.
In its campaign against anti-incumbency, the BJP has shifted some of its incumbency priorities to adjacent seats. Forest Minister Rakesh Pathania moved from Nurpur to Fatehpur, Urban Development Minister Suresh Bhardwaj moved from Shimla to Kasumpti and Ramesh Dhwala moved from Jwalamukhi to Dehra.
It also compromised on “privarvad” and gave the current lawmaker’s family a ticket. In the Dharampur section, Irrigation and Public Health Minister Mohinder Singh was replaced by his son Rajat Thakur; in Chamba, Neelam Nayyar, wife of current MLA Pawan Nayyar, and in Barsar, Maya Sharma, wife of former BJP MLA, got tickets. It also nominated Chetan Bragta, son of the late Narinder Bragta, from the Kotkhai seat. He was denied votes for the seat in the by-election, citing the party’s opposition to promoting a political dynasty.
Parivavard was not a problem for Congress, which did not hesitate to offer tickets to senior leader Kaul Singh from Drang and daughter Champa Thakur from Mandi. It also sent RS Bali, son of the late GS Bali from Nagrota, and Bhawani Singh, son of the late Sujan Singh from Fatehpur.
(The author is a political analyst. He is associated with People’s Pulse, a research institute in Hyderabad)
