While the media is busy with Prachanda, the focus should be on Oli, who could be India’s nemesis in Kathmandu.
Posted on – 12:48 AM, Fri – 13 January 23
![Opinion: Beware New Delhi](https://cdn.telanganatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Nepal.jpg)
Amitava Mukherjee
Hyderabad: It is not Nepalese Prime Minister Prachanda who may be India’s nemesis in Kathmandu, but Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (UML). While the Indian media is preoccupied with Prachanda’s future, the focus should be on Oli, an openly anti-India politician in Nepal who is now a fan of Nepal.
Since Nepal’s strategic value to India is enormous, both New Delhi and Beijing are involved in the tug-of-war for establishing their respective hegemony there, and Oli is undoubtedly the decisive factor for these two Asian powers.
South Block’s mistakes
In the latest game, Ollie comprehensively defeated the amateurs in New Delhi’s south neighbourhood. The Indian government is confident Nepali Congress leader Sherbahadurba will form a government as his party emerged as the largest party in the election results with 89 seats. Deuba also assured New Delhi of this. But South Block made a terrible mistake. After the abolition of the monarchy, Nepal’s regime shifted to the left, and both Oli’s CPI (UML) and CPI (Maoist Center) are now forces to be reckoned with. At a time when it takes time to develop all political stakeholders in Kathmandu, New Delhi is putting all its eggs in the basket of the Nepali Congress.
But Ollie hasn’t always been against the Indians. He actively supported the signing of the Mahakali water-sharing agreement between Nepal and India, although some Nepali elites denounced the agreement as a betrayal of India. But in the 2017 election, he launched a vitriolic anti-India campaign. The pain stems from a belief that India was acting behind the scenes to destabilize the government he led in 2016. But more importantly, Oli’s distrust of India’s ruling elite also stemmed from his social and political background.
leave
Ollie comes from a middle class background. His political baptism in the 1960s coincided with the rise of the Naxalite movement in India, and there is every reason to believe he was influenced by it. He took an active part in the Japa rebellion in eastern Nepal, where poor peasants revolted against their landowners. He was repeatedly arrested for his political beliefs and spent 14 years in prison. His estrangement from India was natural, as the Naxalite movement in India faded, and he had almost nothing to do with the Indian left, including the CPI and CPI.
Let’s see how the combination of Oli-Prachanda, who will be a minor player, can give New Delhi a moment of trouble. Shortly after becoming prime minister, Prachanda inaugurated the Chinese-funded Pokhara International Airport. More importantly, shortly after the new government took office, a Chinese technical team arrived in Kathmandu to complete the survey work of the Tibet-Nepal railway network, which will eventually reach Lumbini near the Nepal-India border.
With the development of the situation, the Indian foreign affairs department has gone crazy. According to the grapevine, the Indian diplomatic mission in Kathmandu has received news requiring it to update the situation in Nepal on a daily basis. But this is belated wisdom. India should have tried earlier to create a working relationship between Oli and Nepal’s parliament. After all, Nepali politicians are very “pragmatic” and if New Delhi is wise enough to curb Sher Bahadur Deuba’s ambitions, tinkering between the two is possible.
ollie’s preference
The question that the relevant circles are most concerned about now is why the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs led by Jaishankar was outmaneuvered by Oli. Don’t Indian officials know about Oli’s political leanings or background? The background material is ready. When did China stir up tension in the Ladakh region? As the communist giant grapples internationally over the origin of the coronavirus, it is trying to divert public attention at home and abroad from the coronavirus issue by creating a war-like situation.
Oli, then Prime Minister of Nepal, acted as China’s proxy at this juncture. He abruptly announced his government’s decision to release a new political map of his country, which will show three Indian-controlled regions, Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiadhura, as part of Nepal.
Oli brought another unpleasant moment to New Delhi. Oli accused India of violating international borders when Narendra Modi’s central government divided Jammu and Kashmir into two centrally administered areas, even though the Indian government’s actions had nothing to do with the India-Nepal border.
beijing making progress
While the Indian media seems preoccupied with the China-Nepal railway project, Beijing has quietly made its mark on other infrastructure projects in Nepal that have gone largely unnoticed over the years. China is involved in the modernization of the Alaniko Highway linking Kathmandu to the Chinese border near Kodari. What’s more, Beijing invested more than $20 million in upgrading the 17-kilometer dirt road between Nepal’s Syabrubesi and Tibet’s Gyirong. On the Tibet side, China has built Highway 318, which leads first to Lhasa and then to Shanghai. The Syabrubesi-Kyirong road is directly connected to this Chinese expressway.
In this context, Indonesian relations are at a tricky stage. Oli may not be Nepal’s PM, but the real PM, Prachanda, has little wiggle room, and his CPI (Maoist center) has only 32 parliamentary seats. Moreover, Prachanda’s own political beliefs are all too well known. He will use his Indian cards to achieve his goals, but his heart is in Beijing. For New Delhi, simply maintaining good relations with the Nepalese Congress will no longer make any sense. Both CPI (UML) and CPI (Maoist Center) must be kept secret. But are Southside staff up to the task?